TL;DR - The $60,000 bitcoin put is now the single most popular options position on Deribit, with $1.17 billion in notional open interest. It replaced the $70,000 and $72,000 calls that dominated before the Fed meeting. With August producing a median return of -7.5% since 2013, the options market is pricing in downside risk heading into what has historically been bitcoin's worst month.
Quick Answer: As of July 31, 2026, the $60,000 bitcoin put option leads all positions on Deribit with $1.17 billion in notional open interest. The $70,000 call dropped from $2.5 billion to $943 million, and the $72,000 call fell to $888 million after the Fed meeting failed to produce a rally. Bitcoin's August median return since 2013 is -7.5%, with the month closing red in 9 of the last 13 years.
Why Did the Options Market Flip Bearish?
Two weeks ago, the most popular bitcoin bets on Deribit were bullish. The $70,000 and $72,000 call options each held $2.5 billion in notional open interest - traders positioning for a rally into the Fed's July meeting. When the Fed projected its first rate hike since 2023, bitcoin didn't get the catalyst bulls were counting on.
That rally didn't materialize. Bitcoin broke below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, recovered to $63,000-$64,000, but never threatened $70,000. When $10 billion in BTC and ETH options expired on Friday at 08:00 UTC, those call positions unwound. The $70,000 call dropped to $943 million. The $72,000 call fell to $888 million.
In their place, the $60,000 put rose to the top of the board at $1.17 billion. Traders buy puts to protect against price declines - this is the market hedging for a move back below $60,000.
What Does August Seasonality Tell Us?
Since 2013, August has been bitcoin's weakest month. The numbers are clear:
- Median August return: -7.5%
- Red Augusts: 9 out of 13 years (69% of the time)
- Win rate: roughly 30%
- Recent streak: four consecutive red Augusts from 2022 through 2025
The median is the right metric here. Bitcoin's average August return is slightly better because a few strong years (2013, 2017, 2020) pull the mean up. But in a typical year, August delivers losses.
There's also a specific pattern worth noting: a positive July tends to be followed by a negative August. Bitcoin is up approximately 8.9% in July 2026. The historical median return after a positive July is -7.5%.
How Big Was the July Options Expiry?
Friday's expiry was massive - roughly 149,000 bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $9.57 billion. Combined with Ethereum options, the total reached approximately $10.4 billion. That represented about 30% of all outstanding contracts on Deribit.
Going into expiry, the put/call ratio was 0.28 - meaning call open interest still far exceeded puts. That's because most of the expiring contracts were the bullish bets placed before the Fed meeting. The $64,000 max pain level was close to spot, so many contracts settled near the money.
The key shift happened after expiry. With those massive call positions gone, the remaining open interest tilts defensive. The $60,000 put didn't just become the leader - it became the leader by a wide margin over any single call strike. The shift mirrors what happened when BlackRock's IBIT options volume surpassed Deribit earlier this year - institutional options activity is reshaping how bitcoin prices discover direction.
How Are ETF Flows Responding?
For Bitcoin ETF holders, options positioning has direct implications. When the last major wave of ETF outflows hit $3.45 billion, it coincided with exactly this kind of bearish options shift. Traders hedge with puts, spot sellers follow, and ETF redemptions amplify the move.
The covered call ETF strategies like BlackRock's BITA are designed for this environment - they generate income by selling the kind of call options that just collapsed in value. If you're exploring how options overlay strategies work in the ETF wrapper, our Bitcoin ETF options guide covers the mechanics.
What Should Bitcoin Holders Watch?
Three levels matter heading into August:
$60,000 - This is where the put protection is concentrated. A break below this level could trigger accelerated selling as hedges get exercised and delta-hedging by market makers adds selling pressure.
$64,000 - The recent max pain and current trading range. Holding above this level would challenge the bearish seasonal thesis.
$70,000 - The former call strike target. A move back to this level would require a significant catalyst - the kind of move that August historically doesn't deliver.
The treasury companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets - Strategy, Metaplanet, and others ranked by holdings - also face mark-to-market pressure in a down month. Strategy's recent move to build a $3.75 billion USD reserve looks prescient in this context - cash reserves buffer preferred dividend obligations when BTC drops.
For a full comparison of spot Bitcoin ETFs and how they differ on fees, custody, and structure, see our ETF comparison guide.
None of this means August will definitely be red. But the options market is pricing in downside risk, and history suggests that's the right bet more often than not.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. This article discusses options and derivatives. Nothing in this piece constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research.
Sean Ristau | @SeanRistau | 21Rates / The Daily Stack