Will MSTR Be Excluded From the MSCI Index? What the Final Rule Says

The short answer

Will MSTR be excluded from the MSCI index? No one outside MSCI can answer that yet, and this page will not pretend otherwise. The constituent decisions come with the November 2026 Index Review, and the change takes effect as of the close of November 30, 2026, per MSCI's October 15 announcement. What you can do now is understand the exact test MSCI will apply, so the November list is a confirmation rather than a surprise.

What MSCI actually decided

The process started with an August 3, 2026 consultation on the eligibility of non-operating companies in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes. The October 15 announcement finalized the framework. The structure has three moving parts:

Two points matter for how you read the coverage. First, this is not the earlier, simpler digital-asset test some commentary described during the consultation period. The final rule is the screen-plus-ratios structure above, and MSCI noted minor modifications from the proposal; the exact final ratio thresholds are not quoted here because the final methodology appendix was not verified. Second, investment funds are already ineligible for these indexes, so the new rule is aimed at operating companies whose balance sheets have come to resemble funds, not at funds themselves.

Where Strategy and Metaplanet fit

Reporting on October 16, 2026, including CoinDesk and Yahoo Finance, framed the finalized rules as putting bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet on notice. That framing is about eligibility risk, not a decided outcome. MSCI has not published a removal determination for either company, and any list or watchlist circulating before the official review is unverified.

For dated context, the 21Rates tracker lists Strategy at 848,517 BTC as of October 18, 2026, with a tracker mNAV of 1.1426724573139324, and Metaplanet at 44,000 BTC as of September 30, 2026, with a tracker mNAV of 0.897701153226494. These figures describe holdings and the tracker's valuation measure; they do not tell you how MSCI will score either company under the new screen.

The May simulation is history, not a verdict

MSCI's consultation material included a May 2026 simulation of the proposed screens. Treat it as a test run of a proposal that was later modified. It is useful for understanding how the methodology behaves, and useless as a prediction of the November 2026 constituent list.

What exclusion would and would not mean

If MSTR were removed, the mechanical effect is that index-tracking funds would sell MSTR shares to match the new index composition. That is a share-flow event. It is not a rule requiring Strategy to sell bitcoin, and nothing in MSCI's framework touches the company's treasury. Older estimates of potential forced selling, such as a November 2025 JPMorgan figure cited in coverage, are dated and should not be read as current numbers. The two-period buffer also means removal, if it ever happens, follows repeated screen failures across annual filings, not a single bad quarter.

What to do next

1. Read the October 15 MSCI announcement directly rather than secondhand summaries.
2. Track dated holdings and mNAV on the 21Rates treasury-company tracker so you are working from current figures.
3. When the November 2026 Index Review publishes, compare the official constituent list against the rule structure above before reacting.

Frequently asked questions

Has MSCI already decided to remove MSTR?

No. MSCI finalized the eligibility rule on October 15, 2026, but constituent decisions come with the November 2026 Index Review, effective as of the close of November 30, 2026. Any removal list circulating before that is unverified.

What test will MSCI apply to Strategy?

An issuer first faces a core screen for substantial operating assets. If it fails that screen, it is ineligible only when flagged on four or more of five non-industry-specific financial ratios, and current constituents must fail in each of their two most recent annual filing periods before removal.

Would MSCI exclusion force Strategy to sell its bitcoin?

No. Index exclusion means index-tracking funds sell MSTR shares to match the new composition. Nothing in the MSCI rule requires or compels any sale of bitcoin by Strategy itself.

Does the May 2026 simulation show MSTR being removed?

The simulation was a test run of the proposed screens during the consultation, and the final rule included modifications. It is historical context for how the methodology works, not a prediction of the November 2026 list.

Where can I track Strategy's bitcoin holdings in the meantime?

The 21Rates Strategy tracker page lists dated holdings, 848,517 BTC as of October 18, 2026, along with the tracker's mNAV measure. Use dated figures like these rather than stale screenshots or unsourced estimates.